This article ‘America’s upcoming Presidential Election: What can India Expect?’’ has been written by Ashish Gajwani Law Student at Maharashtra National Law University, Aurangabad. The author here has put some light on the importance of America’s Presidential election and the possible impact on Indo-U.S. relations. Also, the Indo-U.S. relations between 2016-2020 and procedure for the American Presidential elections.

Introduction 

The 59th Presidential Elections of America are scheduled on 3rd November 2020. The candidates contesting in the election are Current President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden. Joe Biden is the former Vice President of America and Seven-term senator from Delaware, he had previously contested for the elections twice. The reason why the Presidential Elections of The United States is such a talked about topic as the elected person will lead one of the most powerful nations on the earth, which has one of the most powerful economies and the army. P.O.T.U.S (President of The United States) a term used in The United States for the American President is one of the most powerful positions that can be held by a person across the globe. 

The procedure of Presidential Election in America

The Election in The United States of America is held after every 4 years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday, November. The elections in the United States are Indirect and a person can have only 2 terms as The President of The United States of America, this rule was laid down by a Constitutional Amendment in 1951. 

Qualifications

As per Article 2 Section 1 of The U.S. Constitution, a person should fulfil certain qualifications to be the President, these are:

• The person should be 35 years of age.
• He should be a U.S. born citizen.
• He should be a resident of the U.S.A. for 14 years.

The U.S. Congress

The U.S. congress which can be compared to the Parliament in India comprises the House of Representatives and The Senate. The House of Representatives which can be compared to the Lower House in our country has 435 members including 6 more members who do not have the power to vote. The Senate which can be compared to the Upper House which has 100 members, 2 members from each state in The United States. The U.S. Congress has not a direct role to play in the U.S. presidential elections.

The Parties

There are two parties in the U.S. Presidential Elections

• The Democratic Party- This party comprises Liberals, having Liberal Values, some famous Presidents of the Democratic Party are Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy.

• The Republican Party– This is also known as the Grand Old Party which comprises conservatives. Some famous presidents of The Republic Party are George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln. 

The Process

• The Primaries and the Caucuses – This is the first stage in the Presidential Elections through which both the parties elect their nominee who will contest in the elections. These Primaries and the Caucuses are different types of process used by different states to elect “Delegates” who in turn will elect the nominee. 
• The Primaries- A primary is an election where party members elect the delegates via secret ballot. There are different rules for conducting primaries in different states of The United States, some states allow all the people to vote, some allow only registered ones to vote. These elected delegates finally elect the nominee, who will be contesting for The President. Some delegates are known as ‘Super Delegates’ who have more voting power than delegates. Super Delegates can be Ex-Presidents, Ex-Governors of the Party. 
• The Caucuses- The Caucuses is simply an informal open gathering or meeting of party members to elect the Delegates. A show of hand elects the delegates in this process. The delegates contesting in Caucuses have to openly declare that they will vote for whom to be the President. 

Super Tuesday- This is a day in February or March on which many states conduct The Primaries or The Caucuses. These Super Tuesdays are important because many of the Nominees take back their names, as the results of Super Tuesdays shows the number of delegates supporting the particular nominees.

 

• The National Conventions- It is a gathering of all the delegates elected from all over the country at one big place. Voting is done to select the nominees for the President and the Vice-President, who is also known as the ‘Running Mate’. The delegate supporting a particular party votes for a nominee, who will contest in the final elections and be the face of that particular party. 

• Campaigning and Debates- Finally, after the National Conventions there are two candidates each from their respective parties contesting for the post of the President. The campaigning starts with holding rallies, debates, open forums, town hall meetings and televised debates where both of the candidates come live on T.V. and participate in debates for about two-three times.

• The Elections- This is the day, the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November on which all the persons’ eligible voters elect the ‘Electors’, who form the ‘Electoral College’. These electors are usually local party members who are representatives of a particular party in a particular region. In these elections, there is a rule known as ‘WINNER TAKE IT ALL’, suppose there 30 electors elected from a particular state, now if 16 are from party A and 14 are from part B, the majority party A will also get the numbers of electors of the minority B which means now party A will have total 30 electors. 

• Electoral College- After the elections are conducted the picture becomes clear who will be the President but as a part of procedure, all the Electors meet in the state capital they vote for the President and the Vice President. The congress counts the votes and declares the result officially. 
• The Inauguration- Finally, on this day the winning candidate is sworn in as the President and he takes the oath, the date of this day is fixed on 20th January. 

Nominations and Predictions

The Nominees for this year’s Presidential elections are Joseph R. Biden from the Democratic Party, he is former Vice-President and former Senator from Delaware aged 77 and Donald J. Trump from the Republican Party, he is currently The President of the U.S., Real Estate Developer and a Reality Television Star aged 73.

The chances of Donald Trump winning the election again in 2020 are looking inferior, one of the biggest reason being the way of handling the current pandemic situation which has given a big blow to the American economy leaving 38 million American unemployed Prof. Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of History at the American University in Washington D.C., who has rightly predicted the U.S. elections since 1984, has said there are four key points which go straightly against President Donald Trump

• The Republicans loss in the Mid Term, giving the control of congress to the democrats.
• Donald Trump’s Impeachment.
• Lack of significant foreign policy achievement.
• Narrow Appeal to voters.

According to a survey conducted by a U.S. organisation, Trump’s handling of coronavirus was approved by 41% Americans and disapproved by 53%. The polls up till now indicate that Biden is ahead of Trump by a margin of 5.9%. Despite all these factors, the person who predicted the winning of Donald Trump in 2016 says Trump has 91% chances of winning the elections again this year. 

One of the major influencing factors in America’s Presidential elections is the oil prices in the U.S. which went negative last month. This sharp fall in oil prices in a way works for both the nominees in the election. The fall in prices of oil, as well as gasoline, will induce the American people to drive more on the roads, while the airlines will get an opportunity of earning easy profits, also it helps industries to lower their costs. While the cheap oil prices also result in unemployment from various jobs and the oil companies becoming bankrupt.

Recently, the Presidential Campaign of Donald Trump suffered a major set back due to the death of 46- year old African American George Floyd. He died in police custody where a white policeman choked him with his legs and George suffered from loss of breath. At last, he was choked to death and declared dead in a Hospital. The incident led to protests and a situation of unrest in various parts of the country, where it is already fighting a pandemic. The response of Trump’s administration calling the protestors ‘thugs’ was also not encouraging.

America and India relations during the Trump tenure

Since the Independence of India in 1947 the Indo-U.S. relations have seen many ups and downs. Under the leadership of our Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who stressed a lot on foreign relations with major superpower nations in the world, including the U.S., the relations became much stronger than ever. Starting with Modi’s much talked about and a grand visit to the U.S. in September 2014, where various MoU’s related to Import-Export Bank and energy agencies were signed. A major development in the Indo-U.S. relation was when India got the status of major defence partner of the U.S., a position which is considered to be really important in the global arena. 

The Indo-U.S. relationships suffered a major setback when an incident occurred in which a white-men shot two Indian men, resulting in loss of life of one of them, also Trump’s strict policies and rules for the issue of H-1B visas impacted major Indian IT Companies as the denial rate of the H-1B visas increased up to a great extent. 

Back in June 2017 when Modi and Trump met for the first time, Trump disagreed with India over matters related to trade, climate change and H-1B visas rather the joint statement issued focussed on strengthening defence relationships, countering terrorism and increasing economic ties.

An important step taking forward the Indo-U.S. ties was the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement between the forces of India and The U.S. in September 2018. It was very beneficial for India as it equipped it with more advanced technologies and efficient systems. 

An important step taking forward the Indo-U.S. ties was the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement between the forces of India and The U.S. in September 2018., the reason being that India had not provided equal amounts of access to its markets. Actions were taken by Indian Administration as well.

Despite all these ups and downs during Trump’s tenure, Trump made his first visit to India which was yet another show watched by millions all over the world. During his visit both the leaders decided to counter-narcotics and mental health also there were some economic ties between the two nations. The Indo- U.S. relations during Trump’s tenure were not constant and saw many highs and lows, with defence ties being upgraded and economic ties taking setbacks on many points. 

How will the election impact India? 

The relations so far between India and The U.S. can be termed as functional, with Trump’s major policy decisions on the one hand and events like ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump’ on the other. The two nominees for this year’s election can be compared with their views on handling the current pandemic situation, with Trump isolating the country from other economies while Biden is one Internationalist who had always been positive towards the country’s foreign relations. Trump is the one who has been silent on internal matters like Kashmir, and the one who cannot be trusted on keeping his word over trade deals. Trump’s actions of leaving major policy decisions regarding the handling of a pandemic on individual states and minimising the role of the federal are ones which cannot be ignored.

Dropping down of Bernie Sanders from the presidential race can be considered as a major relief to Indo-U.S. relations as he had been critical of the same and also against some key policy measures of the Narendra Modi administration.

Conclusion

The U.S. presidential elections are one such event on which everyone across the globe has eyes on, the reason being the position and powers which come with the same and its impacts on the other nations. The U.S. is one of the most developed nations in almost every sector around the world who impacts each and every nation with its policy decisions over several matters. It is also very interesting to watch the turn of events which are caused due to the procedure which is established for the elections, they are by far one of the biggest democratic elections.

The personality of the leader so elected also plays a crucial role as the President of The United States is one of the most powerful men in the world. Although during Trump’s tenure Indo-U.S. nations went through many churns of events, it is very much important for India to keep an eye on the elections in order to predict its future relations with The U.S. Considering the policy decisions taken by Trump during his tenure he being an isolationist and his motto of ‘America First’ might prove fatal for further Indo-U.S. relations while Biden’s approach towards Indo-U.S. relations had been very positive from past many years.

References

• https://www.usa.gov/election

• https://www.nytimes.com/

• https://www.hilltimes.com/

• https://www.reuters.com/

• https://www.foxnews.com/

• https://indianexpress.com/

• https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
• https://mea.gov.in/

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